Survival Sunday

So, first of all we had Super Sunday, then it was Grand Slam Sunday, followed by Helicopter Sunday and now Survival Sunday. With just one point separating 15th from 19th, it’s going to be a tense afternoon for five teams and their fans. Sky couldn’t have wished for a better day. With the top of the table all but sorted, they needed something on the final day to rake in the viewers. With nothing to play for anywhere, where would the interest come from? As it is, they are screening no fewer than three games, all featuring those teams in trouble at the bottom. Not only will they attract viewings from the fans of six teams, but also millions of neutrals up and down the country, waiting with baited breath to see which two teams will join West Ham United in relegation to the Football League Championship. But it’s not just clubs that are looking to survive, there’s also a number of managers who will kick off their games tomorrow not knowing if they will still be in charge of the same squad come the start of next season. All is previewed (with opinions and predictions of course) below.

15th - Blackburn Rovers
Barring a strange sequence of events, Blackburn Rovers should still be a Premiership club come the end of play tomorrow. Just one point above the teams in the relegation zone, they also have the best goal difference (-14) out of the five teams in trouble. Their opponents will be fellow survival hopers Wolves in what is likely to be a very tight game with neither side wanting to give anything away. I’d like to say it’s going to be open, with both sides looking to win, but for these two it’s more about not losing than actually winning. Having won only one in their last thirteen though, it could be a nervy day for all involved with the club.

Permutations:
Win - survival guaranteed
Draw - Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan would all need to win to send them down
Lose - two out of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan would need to win to relegate them
Odds to be relegated - 12/1 (Paddy Power)

16th - Wolverhampton Wanderers
With six goals in his last nine games, it is Steven Fletcher that Wolves have to thank for taking such a promising position going into the final day. An equaliser in a thrilling 3-3 draw against Tottenham and two goals in a 3-1 win against West Brom have been hugely important in his sides bid for survival. Before the two recent 3-1 wins (the second being against Sunderland) Wolves were sitting second from bottom, one point from safety and with the worst goal difference in the whole league. Now, they have their fate in their own hands as they host Blackburn tomorrow.

Permutations:
Win - survival guaranteed
Draw - two out of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan would need to win to see Wolves relegated
Lose - if they were to lose by three goals, it would only take draws from Birmingham and Blackpool to send them down. Otherwise two out of the three below them (Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan) would need to win.
Odds to be relegated - 8/1 (William Hill)

17th - Birmingham City
Away to Tottenham, Birmingham possibly have the hardest game out of the five as Spurs still need to cement 5th place and with it, Europa League football. To do that, they need a win. Early on it appears that they will be without star performer Rafael Van Der Vaart, but they still have plenty to worry Birmingham with and have the ability to seriously dent their survival hopes. After two difficult away games at Chelsea and Liverpool - losing 3-1 and 5-0 respectively - Birmingham had three winnable games to guarantee safety before this weekend. A 1-1 draw with Wolves was followed by two defeats against Newcastle and Fulham, taking them from 14th and five points clear of relegation before the Chelsea game, to their current position of 17th, level on points with Blackpool. Even a victory in tomorrow‘s game at White Hart Lane may not be enough, although it’s unlikely that Blackpool will beat Man Utd by two more goals than what Birmingham beat Tottenham by, and even less likely is Wigan to win by three more goals.

Permutations:
Win - as good as safe, providing Blackpool don’t win by two more goals or Wigan by three more goals than what Birmingham win by
Draw - a win from either Blackpool or Wigan would see them relegated, providing Wolves don’t lose to Blackburn by two goals, in which case Birmingham would be safe
Lose - a draw or a win from either Blackpool or Wigan would again see them relegated, although even if they both lose Birmingham could still go down if Tottenham produce a hammering
Odds to be relegated - 7/10 (bwin)

18th - Blackpool
Strange game this one, away at Old Trafford. Man Utd are already crowned as champions, and so have nothing to play for. What’s more, just 6 days after the tie, Man Utd have a little game against Barcelona in the Champions League Final which they have to prepare for. Despite Sir Alex Ferguson stating that Darren Fletcher, Paul Scholes, Anderson, Dimitar Berbatov, Patrice Evra and Edwin Van Der Saar will all play in tomorrow’s game, you wouldn’t expect them all to be playing at 100%. With a place in the starting line-up against Barcelona on their minds, the last thing they will want is an injury. There will be no unnecessary stretches for the ball, no unnecessary fifty-fifty challenges, everyone will want to come out of the game unscathed. This gives Blackpool a little bit of hope, and you can bet Ian Holloway will be trying to take the game to the champions to get that all important win. As for recent results, before the epic 4-3 victory over Bolton in their last game, Blackpool hadn’t won in nine games. Stark contrast compared to the early season form that seen them take up 8th position moving into the new calendar year.

Permutations:
Win - if either of Blackburn, Wolves or Birmingham draw or lose, Blackpool would survive. Otherwise, relegation
Draw - only way they could survive is if Wigan draw or lose and Birmingham lose. Otherwise, relegation
Lose - relegation, unless Birmingham lose by two more goals than what Blackpool do
Odds to be relegated - 2/5 (Unibet)

19th - Wigan
The most difficult of all situations. They may be on the same points total as the two teams above them, but with the worse goal difference, Wigan really have the odds stacked against them tomorrow. They are however, facing a Stoke side who have nothing to play for, although Tony Pulis’ side will want to banish memories of last weekends FA Cup Final loss by finishing the season with a win. If Wigan manager Roberto Martinez needed something inspirational for his team talk, he could show them the league table as of the 9th March. After the 1-0 defeat to Chelsea, they were rock bottom, four points away from safety. Since then, their form reads W-L-D-D-W, with the latest win coming in that extraordinary game at the DW Stadium in which Charles N’Zogbia scored a last minute winner to relegate West Ham and give Wigan a fighting chance on this final day of action. Eight points from five games is an impressive total for a side at the wrong end of the table, and if they take that momentum to Stoke tomorrow, they may well get the result they need. However, even a win may not be enough, they would still need results in other games to go their way.

Permutations:
Win - would still only survive if two of Blackburn, Wolves, Birmingham and Blackpool draw or lose. Otherwise, it’s back to the Championship
Draw - would need Birmingham and Blackpool to lose to survive. Could also survive should Blackburn or Wolves lose heavily, but unlikely
Lose - relegation, unless both Blackpool and Birmingham end up on the wrong side of a big result, although again unlikely
Odds to be relegated - 4/5 (Coral)

My prediction is that Wigan and Birmingham will join West Ham in relegation to the Championship. Tottenham will be too much for Birmingham and I think that Blackpool will get a draw against United, with Stoke beating Wigan.

As mentioned at the start of this piece, there are also a number of managers looking to survive on Survival Sunday:

Carlo Ancelotti
Despite taking Man Utd to the penultimate weekend of the season before officially losing out in the title race, Ancelotti is under pressure from the Chelsea board. We all know just how ruthless owner Roman Abramovich can be, and a season without a trophy could prove fatal to the Italian manager. Winning the league and cup double last season should be enough to secure at least another year, but I think he will be relieved of his duties, with up and coming Porto manager Andre Villas-Boas installed as his replacement.

Roberto Mancini
Having an unlimited amount of funds isn’t always easy. You’re pressured into spending, into buying the best players from around the world, but getting those superstars to perform as a team isn’t always easy. With so many different nationalities comes communication problems, not to mention different cultures and interests off the pitch. Regardless of this, with great money comes great expectations, and despite delivering the FA Cup and Champions League football for the first time in City’s history, Mancini is under pressure for not delivering more. The talk of a dismissal has gone away recently, but only temporarily. Expect more talk of an exit and possible replacements right up until the billionaire owners come out and confirm his future. And don’t expect that to happen at all. Continuity is key to building a football team, a club and as with Ancelotti, I think Mancini should keep his job, and I think he will, for next season at least.

Steve Kean
Kean claims that he has met the new owners of Blackburn Rovers, and they have told him his job is safe whether he survives the drop or not. I would personally like them to come out and say that publicly before I believe it. If they do survive, the owners may then decide to start building the club and throwing money at it. If that’s the case, Kean could find himself unemployed as they look for a more experienced man at the helm to aid the construction of the club.

Ian Holloway
I think the outspoken manager is safe in his job, I can’t see the Blackpool board getting rid of him anytime soon. What he has done for them is nothing short of amazing, especially if he manages to guide them to safety. However, with everything that has happened this season, from the Charlie Adam affair to the FA charges, it really wouldn’t surprise me if he was to resign, particularly if they are relegated tomorrow.

Roberto Martinez
The Wigan manager could be in trouble should his side fail to do what is needed tomorrow, and despite turning the side around in recent games, Dave Whelan would argue as to why they were in the situation in the first place. The never say die attitude he has installed in his players is one of admiration from me, and I only hope Whelan feels the same.

So that’s my take on tomorrow’s football. Now all that’s left, is to sit back and enjoy the days action.